Posted by
TheIdeologicalDyslexic on Friday, September 19, 2008 12:00:00 AM
Who's in the dock for the financial turmoil?
Fingers have pointed at "spivs"
The UK, the US and many countries around the world are reeling from
the current financial crisis. But who is being blamed and how valid is
that blame?
Newspapers on either side of Atlantic are leading the inquest
into just how the current economic crisis got this bad, gripping the
United States and UK and spreading to Russia and Asia.
Several categories of individuals and institutions stand accused.
SUB-PRIME LENDERS
The root of much of the current difficulties lies in the sub-prime
loans market, predominantly in the US. The sub-prime category refers to
the category of borrowers at the highest risk of defaulting on their
loan - perhaps those with a poor credit history or unreliable income.
The reason why this market became popular among lenders is
simple, says Alex Brummer, City editor of the Daily Mail and author of
The Crunch.
The turmoil seems unlikely to end soon
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"The poorest people pay the highest interest rates," he says. In the
low interest rate years after 2001, sub-prime borrowers might pay two
or three times the interest of a prime borrower.
And if some defaulted, it wasn't the end of the world. Property
prices were rising so fast in the US that the odd repossession wasn't a
major problem. In an atmosphere of speculation, many people saw there
was money to be made in property and so the spiral continued.
"There were strippers in Las Vegas who became real estate brokers," says Brummer.
But when the housing market took a turn for the worse, the
problems started. Many borrowers were on deals that for the first two
years had low rates and then switched to a much higher rate. Once house
prices fell, borrowers who were struggling started defaulting on loans.
Repossessed houses flooding onto the market caused a vicious circle.
By April this year, the FBI was already investigating 19 allegations of corporate fraud relating to sub-prime loans.
THE INVESTMENT BANKS
Of course, if it was just a case of sub-prime lenders suffering a
rash of defaults, then the layman might assume that the damage would be
limited to those lenders - like IndyMac and New Century - that have
collapsed.
Architects of their own misery?
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But these sub-prime loans were parcelled up and turned into complex
financial products traded on markets all over the world. The esoteric
nature of some of the products related to these loans has been blamed
by many for the extent of the crisis.
"You have to ask what was driving the sub-prime market," says
Brummer. "It was the demand from the Wall Street investment banks. It
had such good returns. They were incentivising [the lenders].
"The PhD mathematicians found ways of doing sub-prime loan derivative products and an insurance system."
SHORT SELLERS AND SPIVS
One year ago, "short-selling" was a term that would have baffled most.
Now it is being widely blamed on both sides of the Atlantic for some of the worst symptoms of the current crisis.
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WHAT IS SHORT-SELLING?
Short sellers borrows share
Sells share on market
Share price falls
Short seller repurchases share
Share returned to original owner
The price difference is mostly profit
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A short seller effectively bets on the price of an asset, often a
share, falling. Typically this is done by borrowing the share from the
owner. The share is then sold and when the price drops it is
repurchased and returned to the original owner. The short seller
pockets the difference.
A headline from Britain's Daily Express sums up the mood:
"Don't let the spivs destroy Britain." The Daily Mail's take was not
dissimilar when it said: "Spivs, sharks and why the champagne corks
were popping on meltdown Monday."
In the US, Republican presidential candidate John McCain may have spoken for many when he attacked some types of short selling.
The practice has now been temporarily banned for shares in many listed financial companies in both the UK and the US.
Overvalued shares
But the stance of Hector Sants, boss of the Financial Services
Authority, is revealing: "While we still regard short-selling as a
legitimate investment technique in normal market conditions, the
current extreme circumstances have given rise to disorderly markets."
But there are some who say short-selling helps bring overvalued shares to heel.
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The
Securities and Exchange Commission kept in place trading rules that let
speculators and hedge funds turn our markets into a casino
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"All that short sellers do is kind of force prices which are the
true price even faster," says Dr Thomas Kirchmaier, a member of the
London School of Economics' Financial Markets Group and an expert in
corporate governance.
In other words, what leads sellers to short is finding out a
particular asset is overvalued. But the process can be traumatic and
generate its own momentum.
"[There is a view that] all it does is speed up reassessment of
an institution - in a few days rather than a few months," says Brummer.
"But it is the suddenness that produces this immediate shock."
At the moment the speed of the price drop robs governments and
central banks of a chance to formulate a plan for intervention, meaning
that the next domino soon falls.
THE REGULATORS AND CENTRAL BANKERS
In the US, the three-pronged regulation of finance by the Treasury,
Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission has been
criticised. In the UK, the roles of the Financial Services Authority,
Bank of England and government has also been questioned.
John McCain has openly called for the head of the SEC to go.
"The Securities and Exchange Commission kept in place trading rules
that let speculators and hedge funds turn our markets into a casino,"
he said in one speech.
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson knows the markets well having been head of Goldman Sachs
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And there are plenty who take an equally dim view of the British equivalent, the FSA.
"In Britain light touch regulation in the case of Northern Rock
and HBOS was no touch regulation," says Brummer. "The degree of
supervision on who becomes chief executive of these banks is just not
good enough."
But some, like Brummer, feel the FSA faces a struggle, armed as
it is with small numbers of staff paid far less than those they police.
For Professor Richard Portes, founder of the Centre for
Economic Policy Research, regulators and central bankers have been
extraordinarily myopic.
"They should still have seen a lot of warning signs, in particular in looking at off-balance sheet operations."
A key issue is the opacity of the banking system. If no-one can
truly assess the liabilities of a given financial institution, how can
they confidently lend it money? But this has helped people make money.
"You make money when it is opaque, you make money when you have got information that other people don't have," says Prof Portes.
And there are those who point the finger at the light touch of
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 until 2006.
"He let them get away with murder," says Dr Kirchmaier. "At the
same time he had this monetary expansion - he would always bail out the
market."
The theory is that as financial institutions knew they were not
bearing all of the risk, they have not acted as prudently as they
might.
"You can't let these banks go down because the impact on society is enormous. It is the state who has to bail out the banks."
THE POLITICIANS
The first major casualty of the credit crunch in Britain was the
Northern Rock bank, and there has been plenty of criticism of
Chancellor Alastair Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown over the
handling of its crisis and nationalisation.
The government in the UK, as in the US, has argued that this is
a global crisis which cannot be put at the door of a handful of
politicians.
But there are some who believe it can indeed, if only for the
failure to speak out against certain excesses while the going was good.
"Politicians bear some responsibility in Britain," says
Brummer. "We allowed a culture of credit creation. At the end of last
year the amount of credit in the economy was roughly the size of
national output - the highest it's ever been."